The first round of the epidemic never happened


Since the outbreak of the clustering epidemic in Beijing, a total of 318 new local cases have been reported, and strict prevention and control are still continuing.
What is the future development trend of the epidemic situation? Will the new coronavirus really coexist with us for a long time?
China News Agency is a through train. Today, we have an exclusive interview with Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiology expert of China CDC.
The following is a summary of the interview:
China is the through train: you put forward a view in the previous press conference that this round of epidemic situation in Beijing has been controlled. Now looking back at this judgment, do you think it is accurate? What is the basis of your proposal for this pre judgment?
Wu Zunyou: I think this judgment is still valid. I consider it from two aspects.
First, novel coronavirus pneumonia is not easy to detect in the early stage because of the rapid spread of the new crown pneumonia virus. When Beijing is experiencing new cases, we are particularly worried that we will not see whether another second Wuhan will develop into second New York. When we see that the newly reported cases do not show an increasing trend, but a downward trend, we are confident that Beijing will not become the second Wuhan, the second New York, and the epidemic situation will not be out of control. This is the macro level of epidemic control.
We have three indicators.
The first is to look at the number of confirmed cases the day before the new report is released every day. It is not an upward trend, but a downward trend. This is the first good sign that the epidemic has not spread like Wuhan.
Second, novel coronavirus pneumonia is infected with three time points, namely, the time of infection, the time of onset and the time of diagnosis. The significance of these three time points is different. If we look at the epidemic curve constructed according to the incidence day, it is more optimistic than the epidemic curve constructed on the report day. The peak is on the 13th, and then it will continue to decline.
The third is the response time of Beijing, which was pushed forward from June 11, the first reported case was on June 4, and from June 11 to later measures were taken to limit the departure of high-risk people from Beijing on June 16, which is only two weeks.
In Wuhan, clinical symptoms were first found on December 8, doctors were first seen on December 27, and then the city was closed for the first time on January 23. That is to say, Beijing did not give new coronavirus more time to spread in the society. Let’s look again. The case was found on the 11th, and the staff of Xinfa district were screened on the 12th. A considerable proportion of the people were tested positive during the screening, and there were no clinical symptoms. It also shows that measures should be taken in a timely manner.
These three objective indicators show that Beijing has avoided the risks like Wuhan and the pandemic like New York. Therefore, we say that the epidemic situation in Beijing has been basically controlled. Looking back, we can see that the judgment at that time is correct.
China is the through train: at the beginning of this outbreak in Beijing, many experts have also mentioned that this may be an opportunity to solve the mystery of the spread and traceability of the new coronavirus. So far, the source of this virus is where the source of the virus is after the new outbreak in Beijing? How did it break out? Do you think it’s animal carrying or cold chain transmission?
Wu Zunyou: at present, we are very concerned about the source of the virus. We are also actively studying it. Comparing the epidemic situation in Beijing with that in Wuhan at the end of last year, one similarity is that the earliest cases are related to a market, and in the market, they are concentrated in a sales area of seafood. These two points make us have new thinking and some ideas on the source of the virus Research direction.
The gene sequencing of the virus strains in Beijing showed that the virus in Beijing could not come from animals, nor from the virus strains prevalent in Beijing in the early stage. Its virus strains are more like European type, that is, people outside Beijing or contaminated goods may have been brought to new places.
Further research is still in progress, and we hope to have the results as soon as possible.
China is a through train: the epidemic in Beijing is related to the wholesale market of Xinfadi. According to the current research and investigation, has the transmission chain of Xinfadi been cut off?
Wu Zunyou: when the first case was found in Xinfa, it should be said that Beijing promptly locked in the suspicious source of Xinfa and quickly took measures to confirm that Xinfa was indeed the source.
On June 12, the market was closed, the personnel were isolated, and compulsory management was adopted. This series of measures made us cut off the main communication route and mode from then on.
The screening of isolation personnel and the subsequent nucleic acid testing showed that the epidemic situation was centered on the new outbreak and radiated outwards. The patients were mainly concentrated in the new and related personnel. Most of the later cases were found in the isolation observation personnel.
What is the novel coronavirus pneumonia? The number of new confirmed pneumonia cases in Beijing is 7. As of June 28th, 24 cases were confirmed locally, and 318 cases were confirmed locally. However, only 1 cases were discharged after the outbreak of Beijing’s epidemic. This figure is very interesting. Why only 1 cases have been discharged from hospital?
Wu Zunyou: let’s novel coronavirus pneumonia at the beginning of this year. We can see that the average hospitalization time of patients is about two weeks to three weeks. The epidemic situation in Beijing has been more than two weeks since June 11th, so the first patient was discharged from hospital very often.