Peak of epidemic situation in late February


Novel coronavirus pneumonia was critically diagnosed in February 17th by Zhong Nanshan, head of the National Health Protection Commission’s senior expert group and academician of China Academy of engineering, and his team at the Guangdong medical team of the West Hospital of Wuhan Union Hospital, Guangzhou.
Zhong Nanshan and his team connected Guangdong medical team of West Hospital of Wuhan Union Medical College in Guangzhou.
After his consultation, novel coronavirus pneumonia and severe treatment were discussed. He said that the total number of newly confirmed cases in China outside Hubei Province has dropped for 13 days in a row. From this fact, we can see that the central government’s strong intervention measures have worked. “Whether it has reached the peak now, we are still looking at it, and we estimate it is almost the same. At the peak, it is not equal to the inflection point, or with the flow of rework, will there be another peak? My personal estimate is probably not.
In addition to Hubei, the total number of newly confirmed cases in China has dropped for 13 consecutive days. What’s Zhong Nanshan’s new judgment on the trend of the epidemic?
Zhong Nanshan told reporters that he had talked about this problem and made a mathematical model. This mathematical model is based on the traditional model, plus two factors. The traditional model has been done in Hong Kong and London, and it will be very high according to the natural trend. One model predicts that novel coronavirus pneumonia patients in the country should be 170 thousand by February. But at present, the national actual data is almost 70000, which is quite different from the model.
“We have added two parameters to the model,” Zhong said. He said one of the two parameters is strong state intervention. In addition to Wuhan area, early prevention, early detection and early isolation are all in China. In addition, they also consider another variable, that is, after the Spring Festival rework, a large number of labor flows, to consider whether this may cause a new peak.
Zhong Nanshan further said that under the participation of such two strong variables, the law of natural state should be different. So, they initially estimated that in the middle or late February, in terms of the south, it should reach the peak: “to reach the peak does not mean that it will decline immediately. The peak refers to the accumulated cases, or new cases “. Nationwide, he said, it should peak in the middle and late February.
Zhong Nanshan said that the total number of newly confirmed cases in China has dropped for 13 consecutive days outside Hubei. It can be seen from this fact that the central government’s strong interventions have worked: “we are still looking at whether the peak has been reached now, and we estimate that it is almost the same. At the peak, it is not equal to the inflection point. It is also possible that with the great flow of labor (after the festival), there will be another peak. My personal estimate is probably not. Because now the flow process has also taken very strict detection measures, isolation measures, it is not easy to have a big peak (mutual infection, clustering infection). “.
Zhong Nanshan also emphasized that Wuhan has a high incidence rate and mortality rate. Wuhan now accounts for 80% of the total population and the mortality rate is over 95%. Therefore, the support from the whole country to Wuhan is very important. The Ministry of science and technology, the health and Health Commission and the pharmaceutical supervision department are all strengthening the strength of medical treatment, venues and materials. “I don’t have authoritative information, but there are a lot less medical staff infected in Wuhan. It used to be a big problem. The whole morale of medical staff will be greatly affected if they are infected.
“The biggest problem we have now is that Wuhan has made a lot of efforts, but it still hasn’t completely stopped human to human transmission. It seems that it needs to increase. Only when the problem in Wuhan is solved, the normal people are separated from the patients, and the question marks of a large number of suspected patients are solved, can it have a positive impact on the whole country, “he said.
Zhong Nanshan said that we should spare no effort to strengthen the two tests, one is to separate the new coronavirus and influenza; the second is to increase the supplement of the precision of nucleic acid test, that is, the positive and negative test of blood IgM: “reagents are being developed in these two days, and I hope to support Wuhan immediately after passing the test. Separate the suspected patients from the confirmed ones, and let the patients in the hospital ward mainly include the confirmed ones. Rather than now, quite a lot of it is unclear. The first step is to solve this problem, and we have hope. “.
Zhong Nan also mentioned novel coronavirus pneumonia critical patients’ treatment difficulties, “more difficult than SARS.” He explained that as soon as critical patients dragged on, the virus caused continuous damage, which was more difficult than the treatment of SARS. But he stressed that this does not mean that there is no hope at all. For severe patients, efforts are being made to find more effective drugs. “At tomorrow’s science and technology press conference, we will also talk about the latest results of the research on traditional Chinese medicine”, and said that new treatment methods are being explored.
It is reported that novel coronavirus pneumonia is low in other parts of the country, and there is a relatively small number of patients. However, in Wuhan, the number of patients suddenly increased after repeated infection for quite a period of time, which made it too late for medical staff to carry out appropriate treatment in the early stage. When the patient’s condition is very serious, he can arrive at the ICU, and the mortality rate will be high.
Zhong Nanshan also said that Wuhan is more critical than other regions in terms of the severity of critical patients. “Now, I believe that the situation will soon get better as the country strengthens the largest support for Wuhan in material, human, equipment and other aspects,” Zhong said.